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Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
America's big stagflation scare is over
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. And since elevated labor costs are part of the stagflation equation, the dip in average hourly earnings also signaled a period of languid growth will be avoided. It sent alarm bells ringing around stagflation, which occurs when inflation stays high despite a cooling economy.
Persons: , specter, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Bank of America's Michael Harnett —, Harnett Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Bank of America's
In today's big story, what another delay to interest rate cuts means for a market banking on them. The big storyThe waiting game continuesChip Somodevilla/Getty Images; BISpoiler alert: The Federal Reserve won't be lowering interest rates today. The official announcement won't come until this afternoon, but interest rates staying where they are is a forgone conclusion. The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the probability of the Fed's decision based on interest rate traders, has the odds of rates staying untouched at 97.5%.) Talk of cutting interest rates has been going on for the better part of a year.
Persons: , it's, doesn't, We'll, Chip Somodevilla, Jerome Powell, Matt Rourke, Sarah Silbiger, Alyssa Powell, CME's, aren't, Powell, Erin Schaff, Paul Krugman, Donald Trump's, Krugman, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Rebecca Zisser, Instagram, Changpeng Zhao, Binance, Amazon, Emma Tucker's, Steve Bannon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Stagecoach, Trump, Tech, Investors, Bloomberg, Getty, The New York Times, Hunterbrook, JPMorgan, Adobe, Wall Street Journal, Staff, eBay, Pfizer, Google Locations: stagflation, New York, London
JPMorgan says the recent stock rebound driven by robust earnings masks looming stagflationary risks. The soft landing narrative is challenged by the first-quarter GDP report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe recent rally in the stock market, bolstered by a wave of upbeat earnings, is glossing over a host of risks raised by the latest economic data points, JPMorgan said this week. Jamie Dimon and other experts are sounding the alarm, saying the US might be headed for a 1970s-style scenario, complete with a stock market crash.
Persons: , JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, hasn't, Jamie Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Microsoft
In today's big story, we're looking at Tesla's earnings report and what comes next for the EV maker. The big storyTesla's turnaround planJADE GAO/AFP via Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng; BIBad news: Tesla's earnings report was worse than expected. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why Musk spent so much of the earnings call discussing autonomy and the progress made with Tesla's Full Self-Driving software . Musk told analysts on the earnings call that Tesla is the majority of his work . If investors vote against the package at Tesla's annual meeting in June, who knows where Musk — and his AI ambitions — will end up .
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Elon Musk, Tesla, Musk, hasn't, Insider's Linette Lopez, Matt Anderson, Tyler Le, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Cathie, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Gerard Julien, Elon Musk's, Carl Godfrey, Joe Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Tesla, Getty, EV, Musk's, Intel, Micron Technology, Microsoft, BI America, Amazon, Boeing, Meta, IBM, US Locations: Delaware, Outflows, United States, China, Idaho, New York, London
The recent stock slump was just the start of a correction, according to JPMorgan. Investors are too complacent with some risks, and inflation and geopolitics could hurt the market. AdvertisementHe pointed out that investors scrambled to dial down risk amid rising inflation fears and worsening geopolitical risks, which added to the slump in recent weeks. The hotter-than-expected CPI print of 3.5% year-over-year in March signals that recent inflation surprises in the US aren't just noise. AdvertisementSince January, the two-year Treasury yield has surged from 4.2% to 4.9%, matching levels seen last August.
Persons: , Stocks, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Israel didn't Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Service, Treasury Locations: Israel
Don't be fooled by Monday's bounce, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic warned. The S & P 500 entered the week down more than 5% from an all-time high reached earlier in the year. A correction is generally defined as a 10% drop from a 52-week high. "Market concentration has been very high, and positioning extended, which are typically red flags, at risk of a reversal." "The combination of these macro factors increases the downside risks, and suggests that more Defensive trading should be appropriate," he added.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic,
U.S. crude oil and global benchmark Brent finished out the week about 3% lower, despite the fact that Iran and Israel traded direct strikes against each other's territory for the first time. Fears that oil prices could shoot to $100 a barrel or above did not materialize. The market has essentially erased the risk premium associated with the Iran-Israel tensions after traders bid up prices last week on war fears. "These skirmishes did not impress the oil markets, which believe that no disruption to oil flows will occur." Papic said a sustained war between Israel and Iran is difficult to imagine and may even be practically impossible.
Persons: Ali Mohammadi, Israel, Manish Raj, John Kilduff, Marko Papic, Papic, Brent, Kilduff, CNBC's Organizations: Persian Gulf, Bloomberg, Getty, Brent, Israel's, Israel, Traders, Velandara Energy Partners, Again, International Atomic Energy Agency, Clocktower Locations: Bandar Abbas, Iran, Israel, U.S, Damascus, Syria, Tehran
The recent retreat in the stock market has made many worried about a deeper correction. Lingering inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and a shifting outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate policy prompted a market pullback, with the S & P 500 almost 4% off its 52-week high as of Tuesday. A correction is defined as a 10% decline in one of the major U.S. stock indexes, typically the S & P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, from a recent 52-week high close. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 More to go? The heightened geopolitical risk led U.K. investment bank Liberum Capital to call for oil to surge to $100 and a stock market correction as big as 10%.
Persons: Sam Stovall, it's, Stovall, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Marko Kolanovic Organizations: Federal Reserve, CFRA Research, Dow Jones Locations: U.S
Investors should stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy to hedge against inflation as interest rate cuts will likely to come later than originally forecast, according to JPMorgan. Economic growth is also coming in stronger than expected with JPMorgan revising global growth upward by 0.5% in the first half of this year. "However, ongoing growth resilience and sticky inflation raise the odds of fewer cuts," Kolanovic cautioned clients. Kolanovic advised investors to stay overweight on commodities with a focus on energy as oil prices rally. The U.S., however, could tap the strategic petroleum reserve as a countermeasure if the situation escalates and deteriorates further, according to JPMorgan.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Inflation, Kolanovic, Brent Organizations: JPMorgan, Reserve, Russia Locations: U.S, Western Europe, Ukraine, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailClocktower's Marko Papic foresees favorable entry into Chinese equities later this yearMarko Papic, Clocktower Group chief strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss whether new leadership in China's securities regulator will move markets, concerns around Chinese credit habits, and more.
Persons: Clocktower's Marko Papic, Marko Papic Organizations: Clocktower Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is at a similar 'fork in the road' as Western economies were in 2010-2011, strategist saysMarko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, discusses the outlook for China's economy as the country plans new regulations concerning market access and cross-border data flows.
Persons: Marko Papic Organizations: China, Clocktower Group
"In our mind, these debt-funded bitcoin purchases add froth to the current crypto rally by raising the risk of severe deleveraging in a potential downturn in the future," he added. MicroStrategy raised $604 million from the sale of converts on March 18, and another $800 million on March 8 . The latest purchases mark an acceleration from the fourth quarter pace, when MicroStrategy bought more than $1 billion of bitcoin. Originally launched as an enterprise business software company, Microstrategy has been buying bitcoin and holding them on its balance sheet since 2020. It largely trades as a proxy for the price of bitcoin, and in February of this year leaned into that, rebranding itself a Bitcoin development company.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, MicroStrategy, Microstrategy, Kolanovic, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Momentum Locations: bitcoin, cryptocurrencies
JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish thesis amid a more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, saying investors are ignoring key market risks. The Wall Street firm is an outlier among the major banks when it comes to year-end forecasts. As of Monday's close, JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 will tumble more than 17% to its 2024 target of 4,200, according to CNBC's market strategist survey . The S & P 500 has repeatedly notched all-time highs on the back of the artificial intelligence trade. The AI beneficiary, which has been a major driver for the S & P 500's gains this year, could drag the benchmark should it start to sell off.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Kolanovic, NVDA Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank, America's, Nvidia Locations: Gaza, Ukraine
Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.
Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China
The soaring price of bitcoin could delay the Federal Reserve's plans to cut interest rates, according to JPMorgan. The bank said signs of froth in risk assets like bitcoin could lead to higher for longer interest rates. AdvertisementThe record rally in bitcoin could lead the Federal Reserve to delay its planned interest rate cuts later this year, according to JPMorgan. That froth could ultimately drive the Fed to hold off on its planned interest rate cuts, which are often stimulative for risk assets, as it could unleash another round of inflation. "This may keep monetary policy higher for longer, as premature rate cutting risks further inflating asset prices or causing another leg up in inflation," Kolanovic said.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Christopher Waller Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve Locations: bitcoin
The war in Ukraine in 12 key moments
  + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Sophie Tanno | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +13 min
We’ve been taking a look at some of the most significant moments of the war so far. Putin’s announcement signaled the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has so far cost the lives of over 10,300 civilians, according to the United Nations. May 20, 2023: Russia takes control of BakhmutUkrainian army medics treat wounded soldiers at a stabilisation point near Bakhmut frontline. June 2023: Ukraine counteroffensiveUkrainian soldiers shoot rounds into Russian positions with an S60 anti-aircraft canon placed on a truck, outside Bakhmut. February 8, 2024: Ukraine military chief firedCommander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi during an event dedicated to Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv.
Persons: Vladmir Putin, Putin, We’ve, , Volodymyr Zelensky, Pavel Klimov, , Marko Djurica, Russia's, Kolya Serga, Ed Ram, Sefa, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Moscow, Bakhmut, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Wagner, Prigozhin, Reuters Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s Wagner, Alexander Lukashenko, Mike Johnson, Samuel Corum, Ukraine Valerii, Yan Dobronosov, Zelensky, Ukraine’s, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, CNN’s Jennifer Hauser, Victoria Butenko, Daria Tarasova, Andrew Carey Organizations: CNN, NATO, Reuters, Ukraine, United Nations, Presidential Press, Snake, Social Media, Anadolu Agency, Concord, Putin, Getty, Republican, Armed Forces, Moscow Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Russia’s, Kyiv, United States, Russian, West, Dnipro, Hroza, Kharkiv, Bucha, Moskva, Crimea, Kherson, Ukrainian, Kremlin, Belgorod, Bakhmut, NATO, Robotyne, Mariupol, Washington , DC, Avdiivka
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Disco is backOthers have also started to compare today's market and the 1970s' "Nifty Fifty." AdvertisementJPMorgan's Chief Global Strategist Marko Kolanovic also said in a note on Wednesday that fiscal spending and inflation could resemble the 1970s landscape. Similar to the 1970s, there are currently 3 active geopolitical conflict zones – eastern Europe, Middle East, and South China Sea," Kolanovic said. Kolanovic included in his note the chart below, which shows the correlation between inflation and the performance of the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Gundlach, Cole Smead, Smead, Sears Roebuck, Alphabet's, Nvidia's, Microsoft's, Jeremy Siegel, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, " Rosenberg, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Bank of America's, Treasury, Nasdaq, DoubleLine, Investments, Business, Morningstar, Microsoft, Nvidia, Xerox Locations: Europe, Middle East, South China
The stock market's strong start to 2024 could be short lived as the door for inflation to come back remains wide open, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. The S & P 500 is coming off its first weekly loss in six weeks. Year to date, the S & P 500 is up about 4% and reached an all-time high earlier this month above 5,000. "Optimism now is quite high and some describe the current regime as 'parabolic stock markets' and 'platinum-locks,'" he said. According to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , JPMorgan has an S & P 500 target of 4,200.
Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Pro's, Survey, JPMorgan Locations: Japan, Germany, Europe
Mainland Chinese stocks are trying to rebound from five-year lows and it's starting to look like Beijing is willing to take some action. "My question is, would a recovery in [the] Chinese economy and the stock market be the end to that multi-year rally in Chinese bonds?" If Chinese bond yields started to climb, that would likely indicate investors were rotating out, Papic pointed out. Mainland Chinese stock markets are closed and don't re-open until Monday, Feb. 19. They expect if sentiment remains weak, foreign capital still has scope to sell out of mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stocks.
Persons: Clocktower, Marko Papic, Xi Jinping, Papic, Nomura, Yi Huiman, Wu Qing, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bloomberg, U.S ., Shanghai Stock Exchange, Eurasia Group, Hong, UBS, Naura Technology Locations: Beijing, Shanghai, China, U.S, Hong Kong, Eurasia, Shenzhen, Sungrow
Value-investing asset manager GMO last week published a study showing that the top ten S & P 500 stocks by size have handily beaten an equal-weighted pool of the other 490 for several years now. Neither is Microsoft, a useful indicator give that it was the largest stock by market cap both in December 1999 and today. Indeed, today the stock market has done well even as expectations for the speed and depth of rate cuts this year have diminished. (Industrials are leading, the equal-weight S & P is up 19% from October and there were 204 new 52-week highs on the NYSE Friday over 24 new lows.) The S & P 500 uptrend has for weeks targeted the 5050 area, as an immediate culmination point, and it's just about there.
Persons: Morgan, Marko Kolanovic, , Janus, Stocks, it's, Alan Greenspan, Greenspan, Jerome Powell, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Jurrien, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nvidia, Cisco, Nasdaq, Cisco Systems, Microsoft, Fed, Netscape, Boston, NYSE Locations: Russia, It's, Orange County, Calif
Some bills would bar financial institutions from discriminating against those who refuse to participate in DEI programs. Meanwhile, Democrats have filed about two dozen bills in 11 states that would require or promote DEI initiatives. The Supreme Court’s June decision ending affirmative action at universities has created a new legal landscape around diversity programs in the workplace and civil society. Rob Standridge, who has authored four bills aiming to hollow out DEI programs in the state, said it has become a salient campaign theme. In a 2023 report, White said Mississippi’s public universities are spending millions on DEI programs instead of student scholarships.
Persons: JACKSON, Republican Oklahoma Sen, Rob Standridge, Standridge, , Trump, ” Mike Gonzalez, Josiah Magnuson, ” Magnuson, Kevin Stitt, it’s, Sen, Marko Liias, Liias, Ron DeSantis, , Shad, White, Becky Currie, Currie, Spencer Cox, Cox, Robin Vos, Jonathan Butcher, ” Butcher, Fentrice, ” Driskell, Trisha Ahmed, David Lieb, Hannah Schoenbaum, Todd Richmond, ___ Michael Goldberg Organizations: Republican, Associated, Democratic, Republican Oklahoma, Heritage Foundation, Rep, Republican Gov, Oklahoma State Regents, Higher Education, , Washington, Utah Gov, The Heritage Foundation, Democratic House, Associated Press, America Statehouse News Initiative, America Locations: Miss, Washington, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Minneapolis, Jefferson City , Missouri, Salt Lake City, Madison , Wisconsin
By Jonathan LandayWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senior Nordic and Baltic lawmakers visiting Washington on Thursday expressed alarm at what they called a lack of urgency and a clear strategy by the United States to help Ukraine defeat Moscow's invasion. "Guys, wake up," Zygimantis Pavilionis, chairman of the Lithuanian parliament's foreign affairs committee, said in comments directed at Democrats and Republicans. All but Sweden are NATO members. Delegation members said they met administration officials and lawmakers, but mainly sought to speak to Republicans resisting fresh aid. "All of our countries around this table have (given) more than 1% of GDP of military aid to Ukraine.
Persons: Jonathan Landay WASHINGTON, Vladimir Putin, Pavilionis, Rihards Kols, Joe Biden, Marko Mihkelson, Kols, Jonathan Landay, Don Durfee, David Ljunggren Organizations: Nordic, Baltic, U.S, NATO, Lithuanian, Democrats, Republicans, Ukraine, Kyiv, Estonian Locations: Washington, United States, Ukraine, Moscow's, Russian, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, U.S, Latvian, Europe, The U.S, Russia, Moscow
Jason Lee | APBEIJING — Chinese stocks will likely climb by at least 10% in coming days as authorities signal concerted support efforts, said Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group. Mainland Chinese stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday, following gains on Tuesday. A "10% to 15% rally in Chinese equities is likely in coming trading days," he said. Papic said he's been bearish on Chinese stocks for the past 12 months, and didn't rule out the possibility the latest rally "could be a dead cat bounce." Chinese stocks are still down for the year so far, following a 2023 marked by losses.
Persons: Jason Lee, Marko Papic, Papic, Xi Jinping, he's, Clocktower, Xi Organizations: AP BEIJING, Clocktower, U.S, Financial Regulatory Administration, China Securities Regulatory Commission, CNBC Locations: Beijing, China, Shanghai
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is in the middle of a secular stagnation, says Clocktower Group's Marko PapicMarko Papic, Clocktower Group chief strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the upcoming U.S.-China economic talks, state of China's economic woes, risks of escalation in the Middle East, managing geopolitical risk, and more.
Persons: Clocktower Group's Marko Papic Marko Papic Organizations: China, Clocktower Group Locations: U.S, China
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